1. A near miss - this is the best possible outcome. It might shake the driver out of their complacent denial.
2. A sudden, violent reminder that Phone + Driving = Accident. This is, at the very least destructive, always traumatic and in the worst-case scenario, fatal. Definitely a bad outcome.
3. The driver gets away with it, reinforcing their delusion - this significantly increases the future potential for 1 or 2 to occur. The fact the driver got away with it increases their sense that they are not in a survival situation. They are more likely to do it again, in increasingly busy traffic conditions, and for longer periods of time.
All survival states are like this. The risk may not be directly to life or limb. It might be measured in financial or relationship terms, but lack of decisive and timely action will inevitably lead to a confrontation with the risk. What critical situations do you face but chose to ignore? Where might your blindspots be?
Reference. Dingus, T, Hanowski, R and Klauer, S “Estimating Crash Risk: Accident data must be considered in the context of real-world driving if they are to lead to realistic preventive behavior”. Human factors and Ergonomics Society, 2011