When Certainty Creates Chaos

Confidence and charisma can go a long way. Many people are drawn to a person who appears to have it all under control when circumstances are challenging or chaotic. But there's a paradox at play here. Having the confidence to back yourself is important, but you need to leave room for being wrong. If not, you risk leading people into greater chaos.

As a participant on a survival course, I was supremely confident about my navigation skills. I’d had lots of practice in the field and had taught nav for a good while too. The rest of the group defaulted to my confidence and followed me without question as I led them way off course. I’d made a few fundamental errors and assumptions. If you'd like to read about how we got out of the situation, you can read the full story here.

I’ve been thinking about that experience during the last week during conversations with three executive leaders whose organisations are facing massive upheaval and uncertainty due to external factors well outside their control.

All three, rightly, have a very considered view of how the situation will play out over the next 12 to 18 months. It’s useful when leaders take a definitive position. All three stated their position with charisma and confidence, also good. I asked all three the same question. “What are you basing your position on?”. Only one nailed a useful balance.

Leader One, like me in the nav story, was drinking their own cool aid. They are experienced and competent, but were overly confident in their own analysis of the situation. They were expressing great certainty in their perceived likely outcome. People will gravitate toward that in uncertain times, but there’s the risk that they could be wrong, and leading people toward a greater future challenge and adjustment. To be clear, it’s not their analysis or conclusions which are problematic. Just that there’s zero room for alternative possibilities favourable or otherwise.

Leader Two, was wearing rose coloured glasses, convinced everything will work out just fine, and that the more dire possibilities will simply not happen. The optimism is admirable and even useful, but not if it leads to ignoring large scale impacts which are highly likely. You’ve got to face the full reality, however hard it might be.

Leader Three, gave a detailed explanation of their analysis and conclusions. They had a sound and reasonable basis for their thinking. They stated it with confidence. And they also said, “We also have to consider and prepare for the worst case scenario which is much more bleak than my assessment. We can’t ignore that possibility”. 

Leader Three nails it, I reckon. Sound analysis, confident delivery and open to a wider view. That’s a great balance.

If you’d like more on Leadership and overconfidence, read this article “Often Wrong, Never in Doubt” which outlines some of the pitfalls of overconfidence, as well as some tactics to overcome them.

And if you’d like an independent sense check of your own analysis or thinking, sing out. I’d love to be of service.