Two forecasting fails

Fail One

Only envisaging one potential outcome. As a realist with an optimistic bias, I catch myself with this one more often than I would like. I only picture the successful outcome. The positivity sometimes serves me well, but it also makes for a bigger/slower adjustment if things don't go as anticipated. ‘Foreseeing’ only a good outcome can be like “she’ll be right” - it works well if it goes well. A better version is to forecast 3 versions. Ideal, Worst Case, Something in between. Considering each version gives a more robust ‘Plan A’ that will handle a broader range of possibilities.

Fail Two

Over-thinking it. Some people go down a rabbit hole of trying to envisage every possible outcome. The endless “what if” leads to second guessing your chosen path of action. There's lots of research highlighting the many negative aspects of too many options - over forecasting has the same effect. Forecasting is about considering what might be possible or at risk. It’s not about trying to accurately catalogue all eventualities.

Bonus Fail

Freaking ourselves out. Some leaders ask me what the most dire forecast is that we should consider. I reckon it depends on what you can handle as an individual or a team. If you can discuss a really dire, worst case scenario, and treat it as just a thought experiment, that’s useful. But if going there will cause sleepless nights and endless tilting at windmills (origins) (epic sounds), don’t go. That’s exactly the opposite of what the exercise intends. Go as far down the rabbit hole as is useful, but don’t get stuck down there with an overdue rabbit.

Challenging Conversations

If you are a leader, difficult conversations are part of the territory. Done well they can significantly enhance relationships, cohesion and results. But they can also do the opposite. Whether it’s feedback, a piece of bad news, conveying a controversial decision, resolving conflict or negotiating, challenging conversations show up over and over.

They are difficult because you care about the outcome (and possibly the people involved) and there’s some emotional connection to it. If you didn’t care about the people or out come and had no emotional stake in it, the conversation would either not be needed or would be easy.

It took me years to learn that challenging conversations are better had as early as possible. There’s usually more options and less consequences the earlier you have them. Delay or avoidance might feel easier in the moment, but it inevitably adds to the original problem.

What conversations are you avoiding? What is the cost of delaying having them?

Into the unknown…

Image by Tracy Peltier from Pixabay

“So much depends on the outcome of … [insert your process, enquiry, application, etc here]”

I met with three CEO’s last week who echoed a theme. Much of the short to mid term future in their organisations depends on the outcome of things outside of their control. In each case, the outcome/s will require their organisation to change. The outcome/s will also dictate how palatable those changes will be. Whatever happens, there will be change and it will be reactive in nature.

“People are uncertain,” they told me.

Uncertain environments make detail difficult to map. Forecasting various probable outcomes is important work, but can add even more uncertainty.

Maybe you can relate. I know I can.

It's worth remembering that humans have always faced uncertainty. It is uncomfortable and we are pretty good at it. Like those 3 CEO’s you’ve got this.

Here are few things we can do in uncertain times to inject certainty for ourselves and those around us:

• Big picture - Where detail is lacking focus on the big picture. What direction are we heading in? What’s our Why? Is our purpose clear? Are there non-negotiables and principles to bring into focus? When detail is lacking, big picture guidance adds certainty. It gives clarity about what will guide future decisions. Focus on elements that fundamentally won’t change regardless of outcomes and future changes.

• Best Behaviour - Double down on how you treat each other. Focus on and reinforce the best of how people interact with each other in your organisation. When the going gets murky at our house, my partner and I call each other to kindness and integrity. Regardless of what happens, we at least have some certainty about how we will ‘be’ with each other.

• You know how to weave! One CEO, calling on her Maori heritage, likened the situation to being in a place where you don’t know what plants to gather to find the fibres to weave the mat. I reminded her that even if she didn’t know the plant, she could recognise a weavable fibre, and still knows how to weave. Whatever happens next, you know more than you think you do. Bring your deep knowledge and experience with you. The details of execution may be up for change, but you still know how to weave.