Fear of Forecasting?

Breakfast. A leader I admire. Deep conversation about the state of the world. Great way to start the day. The best leaders I know are unafraid to forecast. They are not trying to predict the future, instead thinking about various possibilities and how they might respond in the face of them. Last week, one such conversation turned to how Western Australia has been relatively immune to several large global crises.

GFC - Mining economy shielded us

COVID - distance and sparse population shielded us

Energy Crisis - Abundant natural resources shielded us

Each of these, and other crises have had an impact here, but not like elsewhere. Sometimes we seem to think we are a bit bombproof. The conversation over breakfast explored a number of current global and local factors that could impact us in bigger ways.

Solid leaders play out many eventualities. Not as a glass half empty. Not as fear mongering. As a way of being prepared for more than one possibility.

Forecasts are rarely 100% (just watch the weather) but that’s not the point. Pre-thinking about many possibilities makes it more likely you’ll handle the ones that arise.